Divide an area's annual short-let RevPAR by its median two-bed asking price and shortlist anything clearing 9% gross or better — then eliminate on regulation before you look at a single property. That order matters. Most people find a property they like and rationalise the market afterwards; the money is made by screening forty markets down to three on four numeric filters, and only then opening a property portal.
The detail
Filter one is the yield ratio. Annual RevPAR — nightly rate times occupancy times 365 — divided by the median two-bed sale price in that specific neighbourhood, not the city. In the markets we track, 9% gross is the shortlist threshold and 7% is the abandon line once you assume a 5% mortgage. Sale prices come from HM Land Registry price paid data in England and Wales, or the equivalent national register elsewhere.
Filter two is supply trend. Inside Airbnb publishes rolling city snapshots of active listings; compare the current snapshot to the one twelve months earlier. Listing growth above 15% a year is compressing occupancy faster than demand can absorb, and you will be underwriting last year's numbers into next year's market. Under 10% is comfortable.
Filter three is the regulatory horizon, and it is the one that kills deals. Check the municipal or council licensing register directly: is there a night cap, a licence, a moratorium on new permits, or a live consultation? A market with a settled regime and no pending consultation is worth a lower yield than one with a great yield and an open review. Filter four is demand durability — split the annual occupancy curve by month, and if the peak-to-trough ratio exceeds 2.5x, or if a single event or employer explains the peak, treat the market as fragile.
Finally, go sub-city. Within London, RevPAR varies by roughly 3x between the strongest and weakest postcodes, and the highest-yielding neighbourhoods are almost never the most expensive ones — they are the walkable, transport-connected areas one ring out from the tourist core.
The numbers that matter
Where this stops holding
Every one of these four filters is backward-looking. Listing growth tells you what already happened; occupancy tells you what a market did last year with last year's supply. The single largest determinant of a market's next three years is a regulatory decision that has not been taken yet, and no dataset contains it — Barcelona's yields looked excellent right up to the June 2024 announcement that all 10,101 tourist-apartment licences would expire by 2028. The defence is not better data, it is buying at a price that also works as a long let.
Sources
Get this answered for your address
A HostPal Invest report runs the real occupancy, nightly rate, RevPAR, regulation risk and a buy / wait / avoid verdict for one specific property or drawn area, in any of 117 markets — not a national average. Street-Level reports from £29.